“Migrant Exposure and Anti-Migrant Sentiment: The Case of the Venezuelan Exodus” (with Jeremy Lebow, Jonathan Moreno-Medina, and Horacio Coral). R&R.

The global increase in refugee flows and anti-migrant politics has made it increasingly urgent to understand how migration translates into anti-migrant sentiment. We study the mass exodus of Venezuelans across Latin America, which coincided with an unprecedented decrease in migrant sentiment in the countries which received the most Venezuelans. However, we find no evidence that this decrease occurred in the regions within-country that received the most migrants. We do this using multiple migrant sentiment outcomes including survey measures and social media posts, multiple levels of geographic variation across seven Latin American countries, and an instrumental variable strategy. We find little evidence for heterogeneity along a range of characteristics related to labor market competition, public good scarcity, or crime. If anything, local migration increases migrant sentiment among those most directly exposed to these pressures. We also find that local migration induces meaningful, repeated contact between migrants and natives. The results are consistent with anti-migrant sentiment being driven by national-level narratives divorced from local experiences with migrants.

“The Gender (Dis)Trust Gap: Evidence from a Global Field Experiment.” (with Saad Gulzar). Under review.

How does gender shape social trust? Relative to men, women are more sensitive to safety concerns and often social norms on the acceptabil- ity of speaking to strangers. Yet gender is typically neglected in the study of social trust. We collect data on nearly n = 25,000 randomized interactions in seven countries around the world, where we manipulate the gender, class, and ethnicity of a confederate who approaches pedestrians. We further randomize the trust level required — confederates either drop groceries, ask for help with directions, or ask to borrow the pedestrians’ cell phone. We find that women are 6 pp. less likely to trust strangers than men, on average. When the risk level is highest — in the cell phone experiment — this gender distrust gap grows to 15 pp. On the other hand, women are also more likely to be trusted, relative to men. Across experiments and countries, gender is a larger and more consistent predictor of both trust and trustworthiness than class or race. These results reveal that gender is a critical, yet overlooked, social identity in the study of social trust and cohesion.

“Intergroup Contact, Empathy Education, and Refugee-Native Integration in Lebanon.” (with Alexandra Scacco and Lennard Naumann).

Can intergroup contact improve native-refugee relations? Are any positive effects of contact amplified when combined with empathy-building education? We answer these questions using a field experiment that brings together Syrian refugees and native Lebanese for a psychosocial support program in Lebanon, where refugees make up 25% of the population. We randomly assign participants to two treatment arms: (1) homogenous vs. heterogeneous (Lebanese-Syrian) classroom; (2) empathy building vs. a placebo (health and nutrition) curriculum. We ask whether these treatments can improve prejudiced attitudes and behavior among Syrian and Lebanese participants --- as well as spillover effects among their parents --- and psychological integration among Syrians in particular. This study thus tests the potential of contact and educational programs to build social cohesion between refugees and host populations, in a context of ongoing economic crisis and pervasive distrust.

“Boosting ‘green’ behaviors amid crisis: Field experimental evidence from a Lebanese recycling program.” (with Kristen Kao and Trevor Incerti).

How can we encourage citizens to take costly action for the environment? With waste management systems collapsing in Lebanon, individual action is all the more urgent. We leverage a field experiment in the Lebanese city of Bickfaya to answer this question. Partnering with the local municipality and a grassroots NGO, we evaluate a program that tracks citizens’ waste, inspects their waste bags, and sends them personalized feedback on how to improve their sorting. Two months after the intervention, we find that randomly inviting citizens to join the program improves their sorting quality by an average of 1.5 out of 5 stars (~160% relative to the control group mean). We also find effects on environmentally-conscious behaviors outside of waste sorting – four months after the intervention, treated households are double as likely to sign up for a raffle where prizes are explicitly “green” (4% vs. 8%). These effects disappear at the 12 month mark, however. A survey of the city’s residents explores mechanisms driving the initial effects — and why they did not last. The results suggest that monitoring, combined with knowledge on how to comply, can boost environmentally-conscious behaviors – even against the backdrop of economic and political crisis — but that financial incentives are likely needed to maintain these effects.

“Players, Performance, and Prejudice: Are Minorities Punished More Harshly for Having a Bad Day?” (with Ala Alrababah, William Marble, and Alexandra Siegel).

Are minorities judged more harshly for performing poorly, relative to majority-group members? Conversely, how readily are minorities rewarded for a good performance, relative to majority-group members? We use evidence from English top-tier soccer to answer these questions. Using baseline data on players' predicted performance, we measure how journalists and fans --- both on social media, and on the Premier League Fantasy app --- react to players under- or over-performing. We find little evidence of discrimination based on nationality and ethnicity in fan reactions to player performances, as well as in the traditional media's coverage of these performances. The discrimination we do uncover on the extreme, negative end of the performance spectrum, is small in magnitude. These tentative results suggest that racist and xenophobic backlash toward soccer players, especially after disappointing performances, may be exaggerated relative to the empirical evidence. Journalists and fans punish poor performances, but not differentially so based on player identity.

“(Mis)perceptions of inequality, redistribution, and social cohesion: Evidence from Lebanon.” (with Lydia Assouad, Augustin Bergeron, and Giulia Buccione).

In 2022, a depreciating local currency, hyperinflation, and the removal of fuel and medicine subsidies plunged millions of Lebanese into poverty. This economic crisis, coupled with government inaction, has exacerbated social and economic inequalities in Lebanon, which were already the highest in the region. Anecdotal evidence suggest that most Lebanese incorrectly believe that income inequality is high between religious groups, and low within them. In reality, the opposite is true. Can correcting beliefs about income inequality reduce prejudice and sectarianism, and build solidarity across class lines in Lebanon? We plan to conduct a nationally representative survey of 3,000 Lebanese citizens to first document (mis)perception of income inequality at the national level and between religious groups. We then randomly assign respondents to a video treatment describing extreme levels of inequality at the national level (treatment 1), the same information plus information on the relatively low levels of inequality between religious groups (treatment 2), or placebo information about environmental conditions in Lebanon (control). We estimate the effects of these treatments on intergroup prejudice and trust, tax morale, and support for pro-poor policies.

“Promoting Reconciliation in Conflict-Affected Communities in Mali” (with Chad Hazlett and Daniel Posner).

The ongoing conflict in Mali has deepened inter-group tensions in many communities. In partnership with USAID, we are designing, implementing, and evaluating the impact of an intervention designed to promote reconciliation in conflict-affected communities in the Mopti and Ségou regions of the country. The intervention and accompanying evaluation will allow us to test the relative and joint impacts of cash transfers and more traditional conflict regulating programming on inter-group tensions.

“The Bubba-Gump Effect: Inter-Group Contact and Racial Integration Among U.S. Veterans.” (with Eddie Yang).

“Can Vouching for Stigmatized Individuals Overcome the Trust Deficit in Post-ISIS Iraq? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Mosul.” (with Vera Mironova).

“Do refugee co-sponsorship programs improve economic integration? Causal evidence from the U.S.” (with Jeremy Ferwerda, Jens Hainmueller, Duncan Lawrence, and Jeremy Weinstein).